Chocolate, as we know it today, is being faced by two equally disturbing debates. The first, like crude oil, is the rise in the price of raw cacao because one man is bidding up commodity futures of chocolate. So far he owns more than $1 billion worth of cocoa futures on the open market with the intent on dominating the market.. as in hoarding all the future supply.
The second regards the proposed change in the FDA's definition of the identity of milk chocolate. Basically the recipe includes ingredients like sugar, cocoa powder, chocolate liquor, milk, cocoa butter, vanilla, etc. US dominates with the gold standard of chocolate with production, consumers, and distribution. It is why chocolatiers like See's Candies (who uses Guittard) can sell chocolate confections at a premium. But, some greedy, penny pinching bean-to-bar chocolate manufacturers who say they can't compete against Europe's deviation from the gold standard who want to reduce or eliminate the cocoa butter manufacturing requirement and replace it with say.. up to 95% of non-cocoa butter oils. The primary instigator in this lawsuit is Hersheys, who would benefit more hand-over-fist profit if the gold standard of chocolate were say muckied up this with vegetable fats. I wouldn't be surprised if Mars has also lobbied with Hersheys. Though, companies like E. Guittard and Scharffen Berger less likely to stray from how they make chocolate. What is unfortunate about chocolate manufacturing is when a company that started from a family-run business like Scharffen Berger ends up getting bought by a large conglomerate. Lately all the acquisitions in this market have been done by Kraft Foods (acquired Cadbury) and Hersheys (acquired Sharffen Berger, makes the chocolate for Cadbury, also makes the chocolate for Rolo). It's so sad because Sharffen Berger is really, really good eating and baking chocolate. Don't get me started on how inferior the Baker's Square chocolate is.
In comparison, European chocolate manufacturers only allow up to 5% non-cocoa butter fats in their chocolate confections.
Artificial shortages are possible, but an actual crop shortage would be diluted because it isn't just grown in Central and South America, but also in Malaysia and South Africa. The cacao bean harvest in Hawaii is insignifiant, but the climate is right. Then it depends on what people want to eat. Single origin or blended chocolates (E. Guittard uses single origin to make blended chocolates). On the whole, cocoa prices aren't a lot less than what they were at the same time last year, and manufactured chocolate doesn't have a very long shelf life.
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Cocoa commodity charts
